Trauma and turbulence in 1931 and today          

Just as 1931 brought global trauma so has 2025. Migration, tariffs, resource wars, famine and a shift to the right characterise both. Disrupting might be today’s term, but abandoning is more accurate. Post-1945 norms have not been adjusted or revised, nor are eastern and southern hemispheres better embraced. The rules-based order has simply been traduced and not replaced.

1931 examples include: Japan’s invasion of Manchuria; the forced famine in Kazakhstan; restrictions on migration; tariffs; the depression; India; eugenics; authoritarianism and fascism in Italy, Spain and Britain

There are many resemblances to today’s tipping-point. Will the worst be avoided this time round or, as the haphazard responses to the climate crisis suggest, will long-term future-proofing be subservient to short-term political popularity?

Some selections:
p74: ‘Principles that can be adjusted to suit are not principles, but hypocrisy.’

p77: ‘The invasion of sovereign territory is still outlawed in international law, but is now so routine by more powerful countries that international law is rarely invoked and even more rarely implemented.’

pp115-116: ‘Not only have the values of international law, co-operation, partnership and collaboration been side-lined, they have been abrogated by individuals who think they know best. … A pretext for attacking another country is always useful in the court of public opinion, even if international law is less of an impediment today.’

p117: ‘Although … Pope Leo XIV is still finding his feet, the fact that he was born in America but spans the northern and southern hemispheres, could prove vital in dialling down the crisis. Indeed it may be that their moment has come again for all the world religions that transcend east-west and north-south.’ 

This book identifies the options as we face another fork in the road.

also, e-book ISBN 978-1-0683363-2-4     £8.00